Pork shoulder shrinkage

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Bill,
More BBQ questions…
My son’s Boy Scout Troop is going to do a fundraising dinner in April. We’ve decided to do pulled pork as the main entrée.
I am suggesting to the troop that we smoke whole pork shoulders (fresh). We plan to feed about 450 people and Want to plan to have 50 lbs extra as a cushion and sell as individual pounds to walk in that we can’t serve.
Here’s my question for you…
I’m guessing the shoulders to weigh in about 14 to 16 lbs each…
To end up with 6 oz of meat per person, is 25% shrinkage close for pork shoulder?
6 oz * 450 people = 2700 oz /16 = 168.75 lbs + 50 extra = 218.75…291.2 * 25% shrinkage would equal 218 lbs net.
291 / 15 average weight of whole shoulder = 19.4 shoulders needed for dinner.
Please look over my calculation to see if you think I’m on track.
I think the 6 oz of meat is a little shy, do you think 25% shrinkage is realistic? 
Chris, Phyllis, Ethan, Olivia, Jackson, & Teddy 

3 thoughts on “Pork shoulder shrinkage”

  1. Your calculations look good, but I would count on an average loss of 50%. You may get more or less depending on trimming, fat content, cooking time, etc.

    Bill

  2. Not sure if this helps. I did 20 12-13lb. butts and fed 500 people this past summer. We planned on 1/3lb. sandwiches. I think a majority were bigger but a lot of the ladies wanted smaller one’s.

    I follow Bill’s book and everything always turns out great.

    Al

  3. Not sure if this helps. I did 20 12-13lb. butts this past summer and fed 500 people. Planned on 1/3 lb portions, some were bigger and some were smaller.

    Great book Bill!!

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